Nemanja, ;)
I doubt my gains are a mystery, since I´m not the only one who have had great gains in the short term. Look at Andrew69, for example, or lil12big1, or some others easy gainers, who have had continuous gains, not just newbie luck.
Wad,
I completely agree with you. I am sure most of 85% of my gains in my first month are from jelqing, the other 15% from tunica and ligaments stretching. Why do I say that? Because in the very beginning I barely felt the basic stretches, I felt my ligs and tunica really tough (never felt like I was stretching them); but as time goes on, I´m starting to feel a progressive stretch in them, which I never had before. This just started to happen since 2 weeks ago, so I can conclude that my next gains ratio will switch to 50% from stretching / 50% from jelqing. Besides, I´ve observed that when I started the newbie routine I could actually feel the blood flowing every jelq stroke I did, like the blood running fast inside my penis, a hard to describe feeling. Now I´m having less of that and my penis is reaching a point of less elasticity, (still soft, but not as it used to be).
So, I would suggest, following your original idea, that a gains forecaster could be how soft the penis is in the beginning. My penis was soft as a sponge, without any interior texture feeling. Now it is starting to feel more like a rope, like I said before, I´m starting to feel its interior fibers, like little cables along the shaft. But I think this indication would only forecast the jelqing gains, not the stretching or hanging gains, which come from the tunica and ligaments.