BPEL Gains in Percentage (Y axis) and Days from first to last entry (X axis).

I’ve done a new plot with labels on the axis (and included trendlines, see below).

A lot of further data adjustments can be made.. I already sorted out some of the most “incredible” gains.. Like 800%.!

Also I removed series that only consisted of 14 or less days of reporting.

I also examined the average and std deviation:

Total set: Average is 8,42% gain and std. Deviation of 11,9

Total set of +60days exercise: Average is 10,92% gain and std. Deviation of 8,39

Total set of +120day exercise: Average is 12,48% gain and std. Deviation of 6,18

So according to my fast detoriating statistical knowledge 95% of data should be <25% gain at +120 days of exercise.

I’ve also put in two trendlines.. A liniear and a log one. I have no idea which one is the right fit (I know you can F-test this or something), but I believe it is actually somewhere in between.. Ie. You will experience the law of diminishing returns.. But you will very slowly if you are consistent add to your max potential. Ie. A a*x + b*log(x) something function.. But to add this trendline requires more than my knowledge (or more correct, it’s beyond what I have time for currently).

To do this right you should probably fit the function to each data set (username) and aquire the “a” and “b” and do statistics on that.

Not sure about using standard deviation on percentage numbers.. Cannot remember my statistics well enough.

I do have some (formal) statistical knowledge .. But not a degree in such.. So somebody with a real degree in statistics should maybe look at it.

And remember.. All this was just done to satisfy my own curiosity, but I thought you would like to see the data too *:-)*

/.Slashdot