LOL at “Big M.”
When you look back at the history of LOT Theory, you’ll see that it started out as a hunch on Bib’s part, which he thought made sense based on a very small sampling of data from people who did a lot of hanging.
That “hunch” was repeated and echoed throughout this forum and elsewhere, until it evolved into what many believed to be accepted wisdom from vets, especially Bib, who was thought at the time to be the most successful vet of them all.
But was there really a lot of hard work behind the theory? I think not. For example, no clear anatomical model was ever presented that demonstrated the effects Bib was claiming. Bib tried to create one when I challenged the theory, but it was incomplete and incorrect in many respects. There also are no reliable data available either to support or refute LOT Theory’s predictions. In fact, when you look back, you’ll see that virtually no effort was made to prove the theory at all. It was simply stated, repeated, and eventually became accepted.
Several years ago I created the LOT Simulator in an attempt to demonstrate the theory in action. After spending many hours playing with the simulator, at best I could show that stretching the ligs, even to extremes, caused LOT to decrease by only 15 minutes on the time clock. I suggest that a 15 minute change in LOT is not a measurable difference, not from one year to the next, or even one minute to the next. The simulator simply did not show that lig length and LOT had a whole lot to do with each other. Of course, the simulator may be incomplete or wrong, or I might be using it incorrectly.
But, at a certain point, I came to feel that the burden shouldn’t be on me to disprove LOT Theory, when nobody had ever gone through the trouble to prove it. Really, it was just a hunch that caught on. The burden should be on the people promoting the theory, and they’ve come up with nothing as far as I’ve seen.