Thunder's Place

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How much will you grow if you do not see results as a beginner? Data Analysis

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How much will you grow if you do not see results as a beginner? Data Analysis

I wanted to evaluate whether or not I wanted to begin this journey and what growth to expect based on the time I invested on it. For that I decided to analyze the data available on this site.

I searched for answers to the following questions:

  • If I am diligent, how much should I expect to grow in a year?
  • If I see no results in the beginning, should I continue blindly?

To answer the question “If I am diligent, how much should I expect to grow in a year?” I filtered the data available on Thunder’s Place by the following criteria:
  • Only people who had registered data for more than six months
  • The measurement interval should be less than 2 months
  • Only people who made at least four measurements
The above criteria is how I defined diligence. I think it weeds out people who doesn’t measure properly while still keeping enough data. From the 12280 users registered, only 199 passed the threshold of diligence.

Those 199 had the following growth:

  • BPEL: 2.98 +- 1.93 cm per year
  • MSEG: 1.23 +- 1.12 cm per year
Those are the plots of growth for those diligent people. Each black dot is the growth of a single person.

Great results, in my opinion. I should expect, pessimistically, growth of 1 cm in BPEL in a year.

To answer the question “If I see no results in the beginning, should I continue blindly?” I took the same filtered data and asked the following question:

  • How many of those had less than 0.5 cm of growth in the first month?
I prefer not to trust those who report growth with a precision smaller than 0.5 cm while using a measuring tape or ruler.
  • 30 of 199 diligent people showed less than 0.5 cm of BPEL growth in the first month. They eventually grew 1.97 +- 0.82 cm per year.
  • 75 of 199 diligent people showed less than 0.5 cm of MS-EG growth in the first month. They eventually grew 0.96 +- 0.67 cm per year.
Those are the plots of growth for those people without beginner results. Each black dot is the growth of a single person.

After those results I wanted to know how the expected yearly growth changed based on how long it took to see more than 0.5 cm growth. The plots are shown below

BPEL:

MSEG:

My goal is 3 cm in length and 2cm in girth. From the above plots I plan to start my journey and stick to it for at least 3~4 months. If I don’t see at least half a centimeter of growth in that time frame I will stop. It would probably take longer than I would like to invest (more than 3 years) to see my desired BPEL growth. It seems improbable to achieve my desired girth goal, so I will treat it as a bonus.

What do you guys think? How does it compare with your experience? Especially if you were a late bloomer.

I think this post would better fit in the Penis Enlargement section but I can’t post there.

That’s it. Hello everyone. Wish me luck and dedication on my journey.

Nice analysis. Your analysis of diligent people differs from the auto analysis in BPEL terms by about .6 cm.


Thunder's Place: increasing penis size one dick at a time.


Last edited by memento : 08-22-2021 at .

Originally Posted by memento
Nice analysis. Your analysis of diligent people differs from the auto analysis in BPEL terms by about .6 cm

I expected as much. The less measurements the person makes and the more time between each measurement, the lower the quality of the data. If there is no diligence in measurement taking the chance of the person changing the way they measure is higher. Also erection quality in different times of life that might change and go unnoticed.

I personally do not trust someone who makes one measurement at the beginning and reported a 4 cm increase after 7 months down the line.


Last edited by and970 : 08-22-2021 at .

Most guys have potential for some initial easy gains. Those gains usually come pretty fast during first 6 months and then slow down. It varies widely how much easy fast gains guys get. Some 0,5cm and luckly ones gain 4cm with simple extender use. Of course if methods used in the beginning play role. Extender/ads beeing very simple method and manual exercises needing learning curve. If someone does not gain from 6 months of extender and some manual stretches then probability is that this guys is not going to gain very much with any method. Hard to believe that anyone could not gain even 0,5cm.

Interesting analysis. Remember to start a log and update it after every workout. It helps alot with consistency.


BPEL: 5.5" --> 7.5" ; BPFSL: ~5.6" --> 8.0"

314 hours of tension since 4 Jan 21 for a total of 49,982 PPM. 5.5Squared - Cycle #4 Log

"Going hard, fast and heavy is all against the scientific knowledge of tissue expansion or elongation." - Kyrpa

Originally Posted by Trapezius
Most guys have potential for some initial easy gains. Those gains usually come pretty fast during first 6 months and then slow down. It varies widely how much easy fast gains guys get. Some 0,5cm and luckly ones gain 4cm with simple extender use. Of course if methods used in the beginning play role. Extender/ADS beeing very simple method and manual exercises needing learning curve. If someone does not gain from 6 months of extender and some manual stretches then probability is that this guys is not going to gain very much with any method. Hard to believe that anyone could not gain even 0,5cm.

The chance is low, around 5% of not seeing gains at 2 months as per reported data, but it is there. There is also the fact that people who do not see gains get unmotivated and stop the exercises, so the forum’s word of mouth and results may be biased towards reported gain.

Originally Posted by 5.5Squared
Interesting analysis. Remember to start a log and update it after every workout. It helps alot with consistency.

I just measured my penis and added to the stats. I think I will measure once a month only. I have a pretty heavy upward curve that made it difficult to find a consistent way to measure (using measuring tape).

Measuring consistently and repeatably is important. With a curve you either need to push the curve to a ruler or use a tailor’s tape. A tailor’s tape makes it much harder to get a consistent length measurement. If you have crappy measuring equipment, it’s worth buying something that will last and maybe with a ruler cutting it to the 0 point to avoid adding a calculation.


Thunder's Place: increasing penis size one dick at a time.

I love you approach. That is certainly the proper way to invest in pretty much anything.

Based on latest knowledge, there are certain factors that will help you in a fraction to predict your potential gains. For example, how your BPFSL compares to your BPEL. If they are equal, or if BPEL is greater than your BPFSL, your girth might grow faster than your length. In fact, your length might not grow at all limited by the size of your septum. On the other hand, if your BPFSL is greater than your BPEL, then your BPEL will have in other words “an open lane” to grow.

Not seeing gains does not necessarily mean that PE doesn’t work, is just that many techniques have been applied without any scientific foundation at all, or at the very least anatomy and biochemistry knowledge. Basic newbie routines are pretty much proven over time to yield results, however there are many variables inside such as the force or tension applied to the structure in correlation to the volumetric size and conditioning of the tissues.


Period 1: 06/08/2020 BPFSL: 22cm (8.66") BPEL: 22cm (8.66") EG: 15.8cm (6.25") => 09/07/2020 BPFSL: 23.9cm (9.40")

Period 2: 05/01/2021 BPFSL: 24cm (9.44") BPEL: 22cm (8.66") EG: 15.8cm (6.25") => 07/24/2021 BPFSL: 25.4cm (10.00") BPEL: 23.5cm (9.25")

Goal: 1 Foot x 7.5 Inches (30.48cm x 19.05cm) NBPEL

Originally Posted by igigi
I love you approach. That is certainly the proper way to invest in pretty much anything.

Based on latest knowledge, there are certain factors that will help you in a fraction to predict your potential gains. For example, how your BPFSL compares to your BPEL. If they are equal, or if BPEL is greater than your BPFSL, your girth might grow faster than your length. In fact, your length might not grow at all limited by the size of your septum. On the other hand, if your BPFSL is greater than your BPEL, then your BPEL will have in other words “an open lane” to grow.

Not seeing gains does not necessarily mean that PE doesn’t work, is just that many techniques have been applied without any scientific foundation at all, or at the very least anatomy and biochemistry knowledge. Basic newbie routines are pretty much proven over time to yield results, however there are many variables inside such as the force or tension applied to the structure in correlation to the volumetric size and conditioning of the tissues.

My BPFSL is the same as my BPEL. Am I doomed then? Lol

There have been no studies on BPFSL compared to BPEL and gains. We are at the level of anecdote here and one problem with that is if a problem is perceived it will draw people to it who fit the description and then they have a reason whilst there might be an equal number of people who don’t fit the description and therefore don’t involve themselves in the topic.

Start and see how it goes. Figure out changes to what you are doing in response to your gain curve and monitor closely and accurately so that you don’t change course in error.


Thunder's Place: increasing penis size one dick at a time.

Originally Posted by and970
My BPFSL is the same as my BPEL. Am I doomed then? Lol

When I started in mid-March 2021 my BPEL and BPFSL were the same at 6.5”. Last week I measured at 7.5” BPEL and 8” BPFSL pre-workout. So, you are not necessarily doomed at all.


Mar21 - BPFSL: 6.5", BPEL: 6.5", NBPEL: 6", MEG: 5.5"

Aug21 - BPFSL: 7.75" (cold), BPEL: 7.5", NBPEL: 6.75", MEG: 5.5"

Goals - BPFSL: 8.5", BPEL: 8", NBPEL: 7.5", MEG: 6"

I had BPEL same or longer than BPFSL and had 1” newbie gain in first year. I believe from the ligaments as I hanged btc angle. As training progressed my stretched length become longer than erect.

Originally Posted by memento
There have been no studies on BPFSL compared to BPEL and gains. We are at the level of anecdote here and one problem with that is if a problem is perceived it will draw people to it who fit the description and then they have a reason whilst there might be an equal number of people who don’t fit the description and therefore don’t involve themselves in the topic.

Start and see how it goes. Figure out changes to what you are doing in response to your gain curve and monitor closely and accurately so that you don’t change course in error.

Fair enough. I agree.

Thank you for the encouraging words guys. I am starting the linear beginner routine today.

Good luck and good gains.


Thunder's Place: increasing penis size one dick at a time.

Very good analysis!
I have thought of similar analysis, but has been to lazy to do the data sorting scripts that would do this.

I see quite a lot of +6cm/year growth in the data. Does that sound reasonable? Any explanation of this, to me, massive growth?

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