True Size Odds?

I’ve been thinking about size and its frequency in the population.

I have what I think is the lifestyles data here in front of me. For 6.702 inches length it says it is 1 in 6.

But this is for the entire male population, (I think). As most people have sex with people about the same age, this makes the 6.7 more rare.

Let’s take a man in his 20’s.

Lets assume that the ages of men are equally distributed among all ages classes. (I know they are not, but it is easier to quickly calculate). If we use the ages 0 to 80, then 1/7 of males are in each decade of their life. (The population I think is more heavily weighted at the older range, so the 20-something is even more rare than 1 in 7?)

So the twenty something man is already 1 in 42 as far as men in their 20’s. So right there a 20-something woman has a 1 in 42 chance of her partner being that size.

Then we have to consider the female mind. Women won’t have sex with just any man. Just guessing I would say that women won’t have sex with 90% of the men in their age class that they meet or see for whatever reason. So by having sex with her the guy is at LEAST 1 in 9.

So the 6.7 incher becomes 1 in 378.

Another way of looking at it is if she has sex with you, you are already about 1 in 63 of the total male population. So whatever the data is saying, we can multiply the “1 in X” by 63. So a 8.3 incher is listed as 1 in 741. By my logic, he is really 1 in 741 times 63 or 1 in 46,683. If my gains continue a little more, that will put me near 1 in 2,000,000 or so.

Math and statistics were my absolute worst subject. What have I done wrong with this logic/calculation?

USE 2 STROKE OIL, it have a more aggressive acceleration

So if I were 10 inches, that would make me 1 in 220 million? (Listed as 1 in 3.5 million on the data.)

So if the U.S. male population is 105 million, then I would be the only man in the U.S. that my wife would have sex with who has a 10 inch penis?

Yes. :)

I think you need to check your math. If the odds of having a 6.702” or longer penis are 1 in 6, then they are 1 in 6 across any sub-sample of the population, assuming penis length is uniformly distributed, which it probably approximately is.

Grab any 6 guys off a subway car, any 6 guys at a restaurant; any 6 guys at the mall. Chances are, on average, one guy from each group has a dick that is 6.702” or longer (assuming the validity of the LifeStyles data you quoted).

Your mistake was to reduce the odds simply because you reduced the sample size. Statistics predicts that the odds will stay the same. Smaller samples give you less confidence that your statistic will apply accurately to the sampled group, but they don’t change the odds.

It’s just like flipping a coin. You can’t predict that, if you only flip it 5 times, you’ll necessarily get more heads than tails. You might get all heads. You might get all tails. But, odds are you’ll be somewhere in the middle, and, with enough flips, you’ll get pretty darn close to 50-50.

Example:

Flips Odds of all Heads
1 1/2
2 1/4
3 1/8
4 1/16
5 1/32

You get the point. You have to have a really small sample before you start to beat the odds an any real way, but you’re just as likely to get beaten by them.

If you haven’t see it already, Invisible crunched the numbers and did a big series on this in his progress report, called what “What Are The Odds”

What Are The Odds?: The Novice
What Are The Odds?: The Experience Woman
What Are The Odds?: The Adventurer
What Are The Odds?: The Adventurer (Corrections)
What Are The Odds?: The Well-Traveled Lady
What Are The Odds?: The Well-Traveled Lady (Corrections)
What Are The Odds?: The Predator

—

He may have updated or refined them since, I’m not sure.

If I throw dice the chance of getting a six is 1/6.

Since I am in the age group of 40-50 the chance is 1/42.

Since I live I germany (1/40 of the population) the chance is only 1/1607.

In latvia it would be even smaller.

I wonder what is the chance my dick is the size it is, given the above considerations .

Modesto and ticker- Thanks! It didn’t sound right, and you guys explained it very well.

ticktickticker,

“I wonder what is the chance my dick is the size it is, given the above considerations.”

If you assume equal number of men and women in the world, then any one person would have a one in two chance of having a penis.

Age group 40 - 50 = 1/14

Germany = 1/560

You have a one in 560 chance of having any penis at all, being age 40-50 and living in Germany. Consider yourself extremely lucky.

I hope you are still the only man in the U.S. your wife would have sex with. With or without a 10” penis. In fact I hope you are the only man in any country your wife would have sex with. :)

Great job in processing those links in such a concise way. And of course, great job to Invisible. :up:

It was a very funny/daunting experience though.

Reminded me of playing console games as a kid. Going from level to level as they rise in slutiness. The stakes getting higher, and getting more and more nervous and rattled. Feeling very tense. And then the names he has given them. Haven’t read The Predator yet, but if she’s slept with more then 100 people, who cares what she thinks of your size, you ain’t marrying that!

You made me laugh. -

How do you know I actually AM lucky?

Can you multiply the length odds times the girth odds? Wouldn’t that be the same as rolling two dice and calculating the odds?

Yeah you could. But that would be assuming that there are no links between girth and length. But I would say that a long dick is more likely to have an above average girth than a short dick. But hey, who knows.

Except the part about the age brackets, you are spot on.

It’s actually great logic really. If you sleep with a girl, you have been picked out from a large group. So let’s say you have become 1 in 10. You have a 1 in 6 chance of being a 6.7 incher, therefore the overall probability a girl will pick a desirable (to her) guy with a 6.7 incher, is 1 in 60. The reason you CAN multiply the probability is that the 10% of the population that a girl will be attracted to ARE NOT RANDOM, but have been selected.

It would be interesting to see the probability of a given size or larger in the population. That way we could really see our chances of being her biggest.